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Monday, February 6, 2012

UP Pre-poll Survey: News 24 channel - OBI/SCL (UK)

NEW DELHI: Uttar Pradesh is heading for a hung assembly with Samajwadi Party set to emerge as the single largest party, an opinion poll conducted by a TV news channel has said. The survey said no party or alliance would get anywhere close to the majority mark of 202.

SP is predicted to emerge as the single largest party with 127 seats which is 30 seats more than they managed in the last assembly election in 2007, according to the poll. 

The Congress looks set to make massive gain with 78 seats which is 56 seats more than their tally of 22 in the last election. The party , in alliance with Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal, is expected to garner 94 seats. RLD is expected to win 6 more seats this time with a tally of 16.

The ruling Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP ) appears to be the biggest loser with only 108 seats , a loss of 97 seats on its magical tally of 205 in the 2007 election. 

The survey predicts fourth position for BJP with 57 seats , 6 more than its strength of 51 in the last assembly.

Although a lot of smaller parties and independents are also in the fray , the survey predicts only 17 seats for them. The survey found the Congress to be making major gains in Poorvanchal and Pashchim Pradesh. It seems set to increase its tally by 27 in Poorvanchal and by 15 in Pashchim Pradesh causing major losses to the ruling BSP in these regions. It also seems to be getting 14 more seats in Awadh Pradesh than the last election whereas the party does not look to be increasing it's tally in Bundelkhand.

The survey predicts a vote share of 21% for the Congress which is a gain of 12% on its vote share of 9% in the 2007 election.

The BSP is predicted to lose a vote share of 6% but that will mean major losses in terms of seats. The party got 30 % of the total votes cast in the last election but appears to be getting only 24-25 % this time.

The survey conducted by News 24 channel and OBI/SCL (UK) does not predict a major shift in SP's vote share of 26 % in 2007 but it looks to be making major gains in terms of seats.

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