SP-Congress eyes 50 out of 67 seats for Phase 2 Voting
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
While the SP did
well in Phase1 2012 Assembly Elections, it was the party’s spectacular
performance in Phase 2 that laid the foundation to win control over Uttar
Pradesh. Out of the 67 seats that will go to polls in phase two, SP won more
than half (34) in 2012 and this tally goes to 37 if Congress tally of three
seats is included. A vote share analysis of 2012 indicates that if SP and
Congress had contested together in 2012, they would have won more than 50
seats.
Divided in two
parts, the Terai (districts bordering Uttarakhand and Nepal) and Ruhelkhand
(districts coming under the erstwhile kingdom of Ruhella Pathans, who came from
Afghanistan in the late Mughal period), this region comprise a number of
districts with high percentage of Muslim population like Rampur, Moradabad,
Sambhal, Amroha, Pilibhit and so on.
Phase 2 accordingly,
is the turning point of the UP elections. The SP-Congress Alliance can either
break away decisively from the field to chalk up a massive lead that their
rivals would find it difficult to catch up in the remaining phases or the
Alliance can find themselves contained to ensure Uttar Pradesh is still an open
race.
SP-Congress Alliance
The SP swept this
region, winning all eight seats of the Sambhal-Amroha districts, four of eight
seats in Lakhimpur Kheri, four of six in Badaun, three of six in Shahjahanpur,
three of four in Pilibhit and four of six seats in the Moradabad district.
Samajwadi Party will
be banking on its alliance with Congress and the face of Chief Minister
Akhilesh Yadav. The turnout of voters, especially minorities, in the 1st Phases
has immensely boosted its morale.
“Our performance
will be better this time, as we are in alliance with Congress. ‘Cycle’
(election symbol of the SP) with ‘Hand’ (the poll symbol of the Congress) will
increase their pace from the second phase and race till the last phase,”
Samajwadi Party MP from Badaun Dharmendra Yadav told IANS.
“We are expecting to
win over 50 seats this time (in second phase) compared to 35 we won on our own
in 2012,” he added.
BSP
The SP-Congress
Alliance’s main challenger is the BSP. In the 2012 polls, the BSP had won 18
seats and finished second in 22 others. BSP’s Rajya Sabha member Veer Singh
said that the party might not be getting too much play in the media, but it did
well in the first phase too.
The BSP, which had
emerged victorious in 11 seats in 2012, has tried hard to make a dent in SP’s
Muslim vote bank. The party feels that it can improve its performance if it is
able to wean away the Muslims. The Muslim-dominated areas will also be an acid
test for BSP chief Mayawati, who is banking heavily on Dalit-Muslim vote bank,
in the region which was once its favourite hunting ground. This time, BSP is
relying on Muslim support by giving them maximum 97 tickets (out of 403).
“We will perform
much better in the second phase. There is anti-incumbency wave against the
ruling Samajwadi Party and law and order situation is bad. People are also
angry with Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he has not fulfilled promises.
Demonetisation has ruined their life. People of Uttar Pradesh will take revenge.
For them, BSP is the only option,” Veer Singh told IANS.
BJP
The BJP, which had
won 10 seats last time in the region, will be banking heavily on division in
the Muslim votes and the support of OBCs. However, in the 2014 Lok Sabha
elections, the BJP had swept across most of these Assembly segments. While
minority communities had even then voted against the BJP, it was the counter
consolidation of the majority community and the division of the minority vote
bank that led to the BJP's spectacular success. The question is whether the
minority card of the BSP and SP-Congress alliance could again lead to a certain
degree of majority counter consolidation in BJP's favour?
However, as
reflected in Phase 1 BJP’s counter mobilisation strategy apparently fell flat.
Notwithstanding this, in a limited way, due to a murder that has been painted
in the communal colours, BJP banks heavily in doing well in 8 constituencies in
Bijnor. The voter turnout of Bijnor, would give us a clue whether their
expectations are fulfilled. The Muslims constitute 42% of the total population,
whereas 57% people are Hindus—this makes Bijnor the ideal pitch for a polarised
electoral battle.
All Bets are on
SP-Congress Alliance Sweep
While for the BSP,
its Muslim-Dalit formula will be at test, the SP-Congress alliance is banking
on its established and proven track record of having no truce ever with the
BJP. The BJP, despite being stung by the en masse desertion of Jat votes, will
hope for confusion and division of the minority vote bank and a possible
counter polarisation in its favour.
And if polling in
Phase 1 is any indicator, then the minority communities appear to be largely
consolidating around the SP-Congress Alliance. Despite BSP Supremo Mayawati's
efforts, the Muslim voters did not vote en-masse for the BSP and major section
of the Muslims were still leaning towards the SP-Congress coalition. In the
districts around the Agra division, the indications went in the coalition's
favour, although at places where the BSP candidate appeared stronger than the
coalition candidate, the Muslim votes went in BSP favour. In quite a surprising
development, quite a number of Alliance candidates were also successful in
getting Dalit votes, which is rings alarm bells for the future of Mayawati and
BSP although it remains to be seen which way the political breeze blows in the
remaining six phases of elections.
A Modi wave had
swept Uttar Pradesh, including its western belt, during the 2014 general
elections. But, in absence of a wave, electoral dynamics of caste and
communities are expected to play a key role in deciding the fate of the
contesting parties. In this Muslim and Dalit-dominated region, the going for
the BJP could be extremely tough. The party apparently had the best shot in the
73 seats, which went to the polls in the first phase on February 11 but if
ground reports are to be believed, trails the SP-Congress and BSP rather badly.
The BJP, which had
earlier declared the SP as its main rival, changed tack to announce the BSP as
the “main force” in Uttar Pradesh. Political commenters revealed that the BJP
also intends to “go soft” on the BSP, tacitly conceding that the SP-Congress
alliance is the front runner to be winner in UP.
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